News
The government is wrong about the energy transition
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The German federal government assumes that electricity consumption will remain largely constant over the next ten years. However, their own consultants see it differently. They warn against a miscalculation and demand that the German energy transition is partially relocated abroad. Germany will turn from a net exporter to a net importer of electricity.
Long bonds are enthralling traders from the U.S. to France
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In Europe, investors looking to escape a sea of negative yields are snapping up some of the longest-maturity debt on offer in an attempt to park their money in assets that still provide some sort of return. On both sides of the Atlantic, the lengthiest debt is the focus of a debate over whether trillions of dollars of stimulus will trigger a resurgence in inflation.
The great fear of winter power cuts in France
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RTE, the operator of the national grid called on the French to reduce their consumption. The consumption was forecast at 88 GW, low compared to the 102 GW peak of 2018. Some of the nuclear power stations are under maintenance, two reactors and a coal-fired power station at Fessenheim had been closed and wind was very weak on Friday.
World’s negative-yield debt pile at $18 trillion for first time
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About $1 trillion of bonds have seen their yields turn negative this week, meaning 27% of the world’s investment-grade debt is now sub-zero. Bond bulls got a boost on Thursday when the European Central Bank boosted its asset purchase program by an additional 500 billion euros in a bid to support the region’s economic recovery.
ECB’s appetite slowly shuts down Europe’s bond market
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Collapsing trading volumes are a worrying sign for the market’s future. European Central Bank has taken its purchases of debt to unprecedented levels. By the end of 2021, investors will be even more squeezed out. The ECB is set to own around 43% of Germany’s notes. Trading volumes in bund futures have collapsed 62%.
UK power prices jump after National Grid warns of supply risks
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National Grid is struggling to keep the system balanced as demand rises with colder weather and wind generation is forecast to be low. Britain gets about 8% of its power supply from huge cables connected to Europe. The low electricity supply situation could be compounded by a planned strike by Electricite de France SA workers.
Investors seek inflation protection as economic optimism rises
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Funds that buy US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities recorded $1.8bn of inflows in the week ending Wednesday, the largest amount since June and the ninth consecutive week the funds have been allotted new money from clients. The inflows have been dominated by large institutions like endowments and pension funds.
Electricity industry/climate change playing it cool
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Britain more than halved the carbon intensity of its electricity over a decade to 2017. Racing to “net zero” risks losing political support if expensive. Tackling climate change will require massive amounts of clean electricity to electrify transport and heating. UK electricity demand will double by 2050, predicts Aurora Energy Research.
Sunak should be wary of tokenism with green gilts
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In the case of governments, the link between green issuance and any additional green spending is tenuous at best. Germany, for example, identified €12.7 billion of eligible spending from last year’s budget – hardly an indication that the green Bund programme will be financing anything that was not already happening anyway.
Why bigger doesn’t mean better for nuclear power
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Biden’s bet on small-scale nuclear. As part of his decarbonisation drive, the president-elect wants to spur development of small modular reactors (SMRs), so that they can help balance the grid alongside surging renewable output. Small-scale nuclear’s biggest rival natural gas can already be ordered off the shelf and constructed quickly and cheaply.
Bundesbank boss sets stage for ECB climate clash
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Since 2016 the European Central Bank has adhered to the “market neutrality” principle, which aims to avoid distorting relative pricing of securities by only purchasing them in proportion to the overall eligible market. Mr Weidmann defended the principle and said: “It is not the task of the Eurosystem to penalise or promote certain industries.”
Fund managers are incubating a future bond market crash
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In March financial markets were subjected to their biggest stress test in more than a decade. Funds struggled to meet customer redemptions as buyers for credit products proved hard to find. Finland’s Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance has classified corporate credit as illiquid. This is why regulators need to revisit rules covering daily redemptions.
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